ALERT ATCF MIL 92X XXX 211022000000 2021102200 12.6 262.0 16.2 257.7 125 12.7 261.7 220130 2110220121 1 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// WTPN21 PHNC 220130 RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 98.0W TO 16.2N 102.3W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 102200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 98.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 230130Z. // 9221102012 127N 919W 25 9221102018 127N 928W 25 9221102100 127N 937W 25 9221102106 127N 947W 25 9221102112 127N 958W 25 9221102118 128N 969W 25 9221102200 127N 983W 25 NNNN