WTPS51 PGTW 210300 WARNING ATCG MIL 10P SWP 230121004910 2023012100 10P TEN 002 01 125 12 SATL SYNP 015 T000 215S 1625E 035 R034 000 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD T012 224S 1636E 030 T024 231S 1637E 030 AMP 012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 002 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 21.5S 162.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 162.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 22.4S 163.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.1S 163.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 162.8E. 21JAN23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204 NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST. A 202238Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER IMAGE INDICATES THAT 30-35 KT WINDS PERSIST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. AS EVIDENCED BY THE FULLY EXPOSED APPEARANCE IN MSI IMAGERY, COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR HAS INFILTRATED THE CIRCULATION AS WELL AS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THESE FACTORS ARE QUICKLY DOMINATING THE ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 10P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 12, 10P WILL BE PREPARING FOR A SHARP POLEWARD SHIFT, AS A RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS IN. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 12 AND BEGIN A POLEWARD TRACK, CONTINUING TO WEAKEN BY TAU 24 AND BEYOND. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 10P WILL MAINTAIN COURSE THROUGH TAU 12 AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM TURNS POLEWARD. RELIABLE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS WEAKENING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 16 FEET. // 1023011700 207S1481E 15 1023011706 202S1484E 15 1023011712 197S1487E 15 1023011718 186S1488E 25 1023011800 181S1484E 25 1023011806 175S1486E 25 1023011812 170S1493E 25 1023011818 166S1500E 30 1023011900 165S1513E 30 1023011906 167S1525E 25 1023011912 173S1542E 25 1023011918 180S1559E 30 1023012000 187S1577E 30 1023012006 198S1592E 35 1023012012 207S1603E 40 1023012018 208S1615E 35 1023012100 215S1625E 35 NNNN