ALERT ATCF MIL 90X XXX 221013120000 2022101312 12.7 113.8 14.6 109.6 120 13.0 112.9 131500 2210131451 1 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// WTPN21 PGTW 131500 RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7N 113.8E TO 14.6N 109.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 112.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 141500Z. // 9022101218 117N1153E 20 9022101300 120N1145E 20 9022101306 125N1137E 20 9022101312 130N1129E 20 NNNN