ALERT ATCF MIL 93X XXX 220519180000 2022051918 15.6 96.4 17.6 98.4 65 15.8 96.6 200030 2205200021 1 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// WTIO21 PGTW 200030 RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5N 96.2E TO 18.4N 99.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 96.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 210030Z. // 9322051900 149N 953E 15 9322051906 151N 957E 15 9322051912 154N 961E 20 9322051918 158N 966E 20 NNNN