WTXS51 PGTW 041500 WARNING ATCG MIL 08S SIO 220204140457 2022020412 08S BATSIRAI 018 02 270 04 SATL SYNP 015 T000 194S 0526E 115 R064 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 185 SE QD 160 SW QD 105 NW QD T012 198S 0511E 120 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD T024 202S 0491E 105 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 220 SE QD 160 SW QD 080 NW QD T036 208S 0468E 060 R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 210 SE QD 140 SW QD 060 NW QD T048 216S 0440E 040 R034 080 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW QD 100 NW QD T072 231S 0415E 045 R034 140 NE QD 210 SE QD 180 SW QD 100 NW QD T096 250S 0407E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 250 SE QD 190 SW QD 140 NW QD T120 278S 0411E 045 R034 180 NE QD 240 SE QD 170 SW QD 120 NW QD AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 018 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 19.4S 52.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 52.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 19.8S 51.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 20.2S 49.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 20.8S 46.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 21.6S 44.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 23.1S 41.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 25.0S 40.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 27.8S 41.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 52.2E. 04FEB22. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST OF ST ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 52 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z. SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// 0822012318 83S 883E 20 0822012400 88S 890E 20 0822012406 93S 896E 20 0822012412 98S 898E 20 0822012418 103S 901E 25 0822012500 110S 904E 25 0822012506 115S 907E 20 0822012512 122S 909E 20 0822012518 132S 906E 20 0822012600 142S 896E 25 0822012606 144S 881E 30 0822012612 150S 866E 30 0822012618 157S 852E 30 0822012700 164S 837E 35 0822012706 169S 819E 45 0822012712 180S 796E 90 0822012712 180S 796E 90 0822012712 180S 796E 90 0822012718 185S 777E 65 0822012718 185S 777E 65 0822012800 184S 761E 50 0822012800 184S 761E 50 0822012806 183S 747E 45 0822012812 183S 734E 45 0822012818 183S 724E 50 0822012900 182S 716E 55 0822012900 182S 716E 55 0822012906 181S 707E 65 0822012906 181S 707E 65 0822012906 181S 707E 65 0822012912 180S 699E 70 0822012912 180S 699E 70 0822012912 180S 699E 70 0822012918 178S 691E 80 0822012918 178S 691E 80 0822012918 178S 691E 80 0822013000 175S 681E 95 0822013000 175S 681E 95 0822013000 175S 681E 95 0822013006 171S 671E 100 0822013006 171S 671E 100 0822013006 171S 671E 100 0822013012 167S 661E 100 0822013012 167S 661E 100 0822013012 167S 661E 100 0822013018 165S 652E 100 0822013018 165S 652E 100 0822013018 165S 652E 100 0822013100 163S 646E 95 0822013100 163S 646E 95 0822013100 163S 646E 95 0822013106 159S 638E 85 0822013106 159S 638E 85 0822013106 159S 638E 85 0822013112 159S 632E 80 0822013112 159S 632E 80 0822013112 159S 632E 80 0822013118 160S 629E 75 0822013118 160S 629E 75 0822013118 160S 629E 75 0822020100 164S 623E 80 0822020100 164S 623E 80 0822020100 164S 623E 80 0822020106 168S 610E 85 0822020106 168S 610E 85 0822020106 168S 610E 85 0822020112 172S 601E 90 0822020112 172S 601E 90 0822020112 172S 601E 90 0822020118 175S 591E 95 0822020118 175S 591E 95 0822020118 175S 591E 95 0822020200 181S 583E 120 0822020200 181S 583E 120 0822020200 181S 583E 120 0822020206 185S 576E 125 0822020206 185S 576E 125 0822020206 185S 576E 125 0822020212 188S 568E 125 0822020212 188S 568E 125 0822020212 188S 568E 125 0822020218 189S 562E 120 0822020218 189S 562E 120 0822020218 189S 562E 120 0822020300 190S 557E 115 0822020300 190S 557E 115 0822020300 190S 557E 115 0822020306 191S 553E 115 0822020306 191S 553E 115 0822020306 191S 553E 115 0822020312 192S 549E 115 0822020312 192S 549E 115 0822020312 192S 549E 115 0822020318 193S 545E 105 0822020318 193S 545E 105 0822020318 193S 545E 105 0822020400 194S 539E 105 0822020400 194S 539E 105 0822020400 194S 539E 105 0822020406 194S 530E 115 0822020406 194S 530E 115 0822020406 194S 530E 115 0822020412 194S 526E 115 0822020412 194S 526E 115 0822020412 194S 526E 115 NNNN