ALERT ATCF MIL 92X XXX 211130180000 2021113018 -7.7 102.8 -9.6 102.8 70 -7.8 102.9 302300 2111302251 1 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// WTXS21 PGTW 302300 RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.7S 102.8E TO 9.6S 102.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 302230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.8S 102.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 012300Z. // 9221112912 67S1009E 15 9221112918 67S1012E 15 9221113000 68S1017E 20 9221113006 69S1021E 15 9221113012 72S1026E 20 9221113018 78S1029E 25 NNNN