ALERT ATCF MIL 97X XXX 210911180000 2021091118 11.5 262.3 15.5 260.0 175 11.5 262.3 112300 2109112300 1 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// WTPN21 PHNC 112300 RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 97.7W TO 15.5N 100.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 97.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 122300Z. // 9721091018 100N 966W 15 9721091100 104N 970W 15 9721091106 108N 973W 15 9721091112 112N 975W 15 9721091118 115N 977W 20 NNNN