WTPN21 PGTW 300730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2N 134.1E TO 24.2N 130.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.1N 134.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.4N 134.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 134.0E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTH 
EAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 0410Z AMSR2 98GHZ PASS DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONSOLIDATED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH WEST. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KTS) AND 
POLAR OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL 
TRACK NORTHWARDS AND NEAR TAU 24 START TO INTERACT WITH 12W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
310730Z.
//
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