ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZNOV2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260151ZNOV2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 26NOV20 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (NIVAR) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.3N 79.4E, APPROXIMATELY 804 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO32 PGTW 260300) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.1S 91.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 91.3E, APPROXIMATELY 331 
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 261534Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, 
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 
25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 95S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, 
POSSIBLY JUST REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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