WDIO31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ASANI) WARNING 
NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.7N 80.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 601 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST
EIGHT HOURS SHOWS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE SHIELD SHEARING AND
SHOOTING EASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN INDIA FOLLOWED BY A NEW ALBEIT LESS
VIGOROUS BURST OF CONVECTION FORMING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
COASTAL WINDS AND RADAR INDICATE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER AND 
IS ON A BEARING TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN ONGOLE AND FALSE DIVI 
POINT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS RAISED 5 KNOTS FROM THE 
JTWC AND IMD DVORAK ASSESSMENTS AND AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 
988MB DUE TO A RAW ADT ASSESSMENT OF T3.4 AND A BURST OF 
OVERSHOOTING TOPS OVER THE EQUATORWARD SEMICIRCLE JUST
PRIOR TO ANALYSIS TIME.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM THE 101616Z ASCAT 25KM
PASS. 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THERE IS NO STEERING FLOW JUST A
WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WTIH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SSW
THROUGH NNE FROM OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL FROM CHENNAI THROUGH
KOLKATA. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 57 KTS AT 102041Z
   CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 102115Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 32-33 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG WESTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION WILL MAKE FOR A HIGHLY
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (ASANI) WILL BE MAKING
LANDFALL MOMENTARILY AND BEGIN A SHARP DECAYING PROCESS WHILE
HOOKING OVER TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
SEA AS A VIABLE REMNANT NEAR TAU 60 BUT IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LEFT OF THE SYSTEM FOR IT TO REGENERATE OVER 
WATER. WITH EACH PASSING FIX CYCLE AND MODEL RUN, THAT SCENARIO IS 
LOOKING LESS LIKELY AND THE PROBABILITY OF ASANI DISSIPATING OVER 
LAND INCREASES. ALTHOUGH THE OFF-SHORE FLOW IS DECREASING SATURATION 
OF THE ENVIRONMENT IT STILL REMAINS MODERATELY FAVORABLE, AND IF A 
LOW LEVEL VORTEX CAN REMAIN INTACT AND MOVE OUT TO SEA IT WILL BE 
ABLE TO RESUME DEVELOPMENT, OR AT LEAST PERSIST AS A REMNANT LOW. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: INTENSITY MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
REGARDING A PRECIPITOUS DROP-OFF TO UNDER 30KTS WHILE THE STORM IS
OVER LAND. WITH EACH PASSING RUN THE TRACKERS DROP THE
INTENSITY A LITTLE FURTHER AND LOSE THE VORTEX A LITTLE SOONER. 
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY CONSISTENT REGARDING A CURL TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A RETURN TO SEA, BUT THE SPREAD OF THE
TRACKERS IS INCREASING. THE JWTC TRACK FORECAST BALANCES
PERSISTENCE WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS
ON SLOPE IN THE MIDDLE OF A TIGHT PACK OF INTENSITY AIDS. MOST OF
THE INTENSITY AIDS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING BACK OVER WATER IN THE
20-30KT RANGE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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